Illuvium Article

Fear in the Market means Opportunity

June 30, 2022

4 minute read

Today is the day. Illuvium’s token unlock is upon us. We are about to venture into a new world with ILV supply most likely outpacing demand in the short term. This will inevitably drop the price, potentially quite a bit. Where others see fear, I see opportunity.

Illuvium’s story hasn’t changed. The team is hard at work everyday to build the best game possible and the foundation is stronger than ever. The leaks are flowing like a fine wine and each one brings about new excitement for the project. Did you see the new Moz4rt skins based on Illuvials? Very cool.

When ILV was topping $1800 people wished they could go back in time and scoop more at lower prices. Well, now is your chance. If you believe in this project and what is being built then this unlock phase is a major opportunity. This is not financial advice. There is massive risk involved with any project in this space and never invest if you haven’t done the reasearch. Make sure you have the conviction to weather the storm.

Being uncomfortable, feeling uneasy about the climate is the best time to buy. If the majority are too afraid to jump in then inevitably the prices will be lower. Couple that with a token unlock that will dump millions of tokens into the supply over the next couple years and what you are left with is an opportunity.

NBA Top Shot and early NFT projects

This reminds me of being early to NBA Top Shot. Those that got in during the summer of 2020 saw their moments shoot up in value by 1000x in some cases by February 2021. People who bought a LeBron series 1 moment for $20 that summer had the opportunity to turn around and sell it for $20k the next spring. It was wild times and sparked the vanity NFT craze of 2021 led by Cryptopunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club. However, it wasn’t easy to be early for NBA Top Shot. This was a very small piece of the crypto market and only the hardcore DeFi speculators were even aware of it. NFTs weren’t known.

I feel similar about the play to earn space and where Illuvium is currently. The current macro environment coupled with this token unlock has created a very familiar jumping off point with potential opportunity. The major difference here is that we now have 2 years of building and multiple other play to earn projects to compare Illuvium to. We have more knowledge and more data points.

When NBA Top Shot launched the only thing they could compare to was traditional trading cards. NBA Top Shot had an impressive rise and an equally impressive fall due to an inability to control supply. The demand was there and with each drop they grew supply way beyond what the market could handle and that continues to this day. It was a lesson learned for many and brought hundreds of thousands off of Dapper and onto Metamask and Open Sea. NBA Top Shot was a major catalyst for the NFT boom of 2021.

Illuvium in control

As we make our way through 2022 the NFT world is continuing to evolve. Illuvium is now in the driver’s seat with a AAA game that no one can rival.

I’m not saying that as an Illuvium maxi, I’m saying that because it is true. I have not seen a single project as good as Illuvium. A lot of the projects that launched in spring of 2021 with a PFP promised AAA games. None of them are even close. That’s not a knock on them. It simply speaks to how difficult this is to accomplish.

The majority of projects were started by first time founders who are learning as they go. They caught lightening in a bottle during the bull market and now it is time to deliver during the bear. This is where the rubber meets the road and they are scrambling. Some will figure out a path forward, most will fail. Even the ones who do make it through and actually build a game, I question if it will be good. No other project has shown me that they are capable of building a world class title. Many are trying to outsource to studios and fast track their efforts. This won’t work. You can’t rush games like these. They take time, effort and expertise. A lot of money will be wasted on failed games.

What do you do?

So what do investors do? We hear constantly to bet on a team you believe in. Have the conviction. Do the research. I’ve seen hundreds of projects at this point and once I found Illuvium I stopped looking. I sold off other projects and turned my focus squarely on a real team in a sea of pretenders.

I started a blog because there were actual real tangible assets being developed with real utility and plenty of content to cover. No cryptic tweets promising the world with nothing to back it. No massive land grabs with massive gas fees and no public game plan. Illuvium was different. They always have been. They could’ve easily done a $100 million capital raise and sold a PFP at the height of the market like everyone else, but they didn’t. Illuvium chose to quietly build because they actually could! They knew how to build this out on every level. Others are still trying to figure that out.

The Party is Over

Founders have bit off way more than they can chew and the dominoes are falling one by one. As we continue through this bear market the burn out is coming for many. There’s only so many festivals and meet ups you can do without providing real utility. The speculation part of the cycle is coming to an end. The party of 2021 is over and I’ll choose the team that turned down the invitation to begin with.